Analyst: Next-gen game consoles 'highly premature'

If you're hoping for a successor to the PlayStation 3, Xbox 360, or Wii, don't hold your breath: another analyst has dismissed any possibilities for new hardware before 2011, at the earliest.

A couple weeks ago Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter wrote that he didn't expect the next generation of console hardware until 2013, adding ominously "if ever." Today Signal Hill analyst Todd Greenwald echoed Pachter's assertion, stating "we're not even close to nearing an end."

"We think it's highly premature to be thinking of the cycle ending until all of these consoles are well below the $199 mark," said Greenwald, suggesting that Microsoft and Sony are so invested in their present boxes and third-party relationships that he doesn't believe "any party seriously interested in throwing away these investments and starting over from scratch."

In fact, says Greenwald, "we think this cycle will last longer than those in the past, and don't see new hardware coming until 2011 at the earliest, and 2012 to 2013 more likely," appending -- like Pachter -- a foreboding "if at all" in reference to central-side services like OnLive.

I think you'd be hard-pressed these days to find a consumer-side gamer who wouldn't agree with and see the economic sense in that.

Sorry guys, the PlayStation 4 will have to wait.

Sorry guys, the PlayStation 4 will have to wait.

THE VERDICT by Sid Shuman Sid Shuman's Avatar

I think we're only in the first phase of a very long, drawn-out console cycle. This is exactly what the developers want to hear -- the move to the current consoles was stressful enough.

Comments [35]

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gamiac2002

Yes, we know already. There won't be an announcement of the next generation of consoles anytime soon. It doesn't take an analyst to know this.

Existential_11

I don't know about that . I would be surprised not to see annoucements for a new psp or ds within two years. My guess is that the Wii will be the first non portable console to get upgraded.

solid

You are completly right.We need to appericiate tha consoles that we have now.

fueledsystem

why would the wii be the first to get a new console they already beat they 360 and ps3 every single month why would they stop milking that console when its one of the most successful consoles EVER

nintendo will probably be the last to get a next gen system

monkbaine

Way too soon to even think about a new console,at least not one I'll be buying. I know,after how long the PS1 & 2 lasted/is lasting,that there is so much life left in this generation.

patsfan365

neogigames wrote:

Analyze This.

Analyze That. Anyway, i already know about this. Microsoft has already said that they arent even halfway through with the xbox 360's life span, so that means about another 5 years, until 2013.

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