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What to expect from a shrinking E3 in 2008

• By Blake Snow
• June 11, 2008 00:48 AM PST
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With only one month to go, GamePro examines what console gamers can expect this summer from the once-popular, now-castrated Electronic Entertainment Expo.

E3 has seen better days. In just two years, exhibitors have dropped from more than 400 gaming companies in 2006 to just 39 this year. Attendees for the 13 year-old trade event have gone from 60,000 to around 5,000 in the same two years. What's more, several high-profile members including Activision, Vivendi, Lucas Arts, and id Software have already left the Entertainment Software Association (the group that runs the expo) with more to follow, according to The Washington Post.

The culprit? Rising membership costs for less exposure at a smaller, revamped E3 -- not to mention the internet as a more powerful platform for making announcements. As outspoken analyst Michael Pachter puts it, "These publishers got rid of [the old] E3 so they wouldn't be spending money, and they suddenly find they are spending the same amount of money, but without the spectacle of [the old] E3."

Nevertheless, the show must go on. And a vast majority of top-tier players, including console makers, will still be attending this year. So here's what to expect from the big three, according to an analyst, a seasoned video game critic, reputable scuttlebutt, and a little bit of common sense. (Expectedly, Nintendo, Microsoft, and Sony declined comment.) We'll have our specific and unbridled predictions as E3 draws closer, but in the meantime, chew on this.

Nintendo

Though usually the most secretive first-party publisher, Nintendo has at least set expectations high this year. In March, president Reggie Fils-Aime told GameTrailers: "What we announce during E3 is gonna be fantastic. There's gonna be a big game for the holiday that the gamers (and expanded audience) will want." An expected answer from a man who makes his money selling games, yes, but more specific than either Microsoft or Sony have been, at least with the mention of a singular game.

Some speculate it will either be a surprise Zelda title or the reanimation of a long-forgotten franchise (cough, cough, Kid Icarus). Or perhaps it will be something entirely new. "I've heard strong rumors that Nintendo is going to unveil an all-new game with all-new characters," says senior GamePro editor Sid Shuman. "E3 might make a lot of sense for that announcement, despite its smaller size this year." But most promising is the fact that Nintendo has yet to unveil its fall/winter lineup, something that would obviously make sense to do at E3.

In terms of third-party games, Wii owners may be in for a flood support, that is if Capcom's community specialist is to be believed. "The lack of AAA titles has a lot to do with third-parties simply being caught with their pants down," a company moderator wrote last week. "The good news is... many plans and budgets have been shifted and adjusted, and AAA titles should be in the pipeline for Wii, though not ready to be announced."

Whatever the case, Pachter says they'll be "no new hardware announcements" from Nintendo, given that the Wii and DS are the two top-selling systems in the world currently. And much like they did at E3 2007, we fully expect Nintendo to publicize the raging success of Wii ad nauseum. Wait for it.

Microsoft

After finishing 2007 with arguably one of the best lineups in gaming history, Microsoft may have the least amount of sizzle this year when it comes to unexpected game announcements. The company has already unveiled its fall lineup this year, which includes Gears of War 2, Too Human, Viva Pinata: Trouble in Paradise, Fable 2, and Banjo and Kazooie. As a result, the Xbox 360 seemingly has the fewest number of unknowns at the show (though that's not necessarily a bad thing).

"I suspect Microsoft will make one or two surprise announcements, with possible topics include a motion-sensing controller, a trailer for a new Halo game (Chronicles, maybe?), or some other announcement designed to further stoke Xbox 360 demand," says Shuman. "They may also unveil a surprise game." Though Microsoft has denied comment on a Wii-like controller, mounting evidence suggests they will announce one soon, and the company would be foolish not to uncover fresh IP.

Regarding a second Xbox 360 price cut, Pachter says Microsoft will wait until Sony drops the price of the PS3. "That could be at E3," he says, "but more likely closer to holiday." Third-party showings could be strong at the event, as has been the case in recent years for 360, but there's no indication so far that this will happen.

This isn't to say there won't be any big announcements for Xbox 360 owners, just that they might not be as sexy as Nintendo or Sony briefings. But remember, a sleeper hit is just as fun to play as an anticipated blockbuster.

Sony

E3 2008 arrives six months after Sony began its considerable PS3 turnaround, thanks to some enticing games and a much needed price cut. To further the momentum, PS3 owners could be in for some unexpected surprises, but both the popular analyst and seasoned critic expect further showings of already announced games.

"We'll hear more about LittleBigPlanet, Killzone 2, and Resistance 2," says Pachter. "But I can't imagine a surprise."

Shuman agrees. "In terms of games, Sony is unlikely to make any game-changing announcements," he says. "I'm expecting to learn more about upcoming PS3 games, and little else." That said, the GamePro editor suspects Sony will confirm plans to bring its robust video service and digital video recorder to America, features that were already announced for Europe. And just like financial fortune-teller, Shuman believes, "a PS3 price drop will probably happen later in the year, not at E3."

That said, PS3 speculation has been much quieter than either Wii or Xbox 360 so far, as evidenced by the lack of historical hyperlinks above.

But given the show's downsized nature and disputed efficacy, there may be little news this year, much less a winner. "I'm not sure anyone will take the show seriously enough to make a major announcement," muses Pachter. "Given this year's tiny E3 showing, I don't think anyone will win," adds Shuman. "That said, Nintendo will continue to stoke the Wii fires and gain mass market coverage, while Sony and Microsoft trade blows."

Whatever happens, feelings are still mixed on the lack of E3 pageantry and its future. "I hope we go back to the spectacle of the old E3," concludes Pachter. "The industry needs it." But Shuman, who reports the event as opposed to analyzing it, is all for change. "This is either the end of E3, or the beginning of something new," he says. "I desperately hope the show doesn't return to its massive proportions: it was a terrible way to cover games." -- BLAKE SNOW

E3 2008 runs from July 15-17 at the Los Angeles Convention Center. Floor plan image courtesy of Kotaku. As always, reader comments are appreciated.

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