OpEd - Xbox 360 Destined for a Fall?
- August 17, 2005 21:14 PM PST
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High hopes effectively went down the tubes with Microsoft's announcement of two versions.
When first hearing about the news yesterday about Microsoft offering the 360 as two SKUs, immediately "Sega CD" came to mind. Possible HD-DVD upgrade in the future? Sounds as swell of an idea as the 32X.For those who missed the media frenzy, Xbox 360 is coming in two flavors: a "Core System" bundle that doesn't include a hard drive for $299, and another one that does for $399.
Maybe Microsoft missed the clue somewhere along the way, but multiple SKUs for a console is a recipe for disaster. Sure, the GBA has the GBA, GBA SP, and the upcoming GBA micro, but they are all able to play the same games. By having the hard drive-less "Core System" bundle and the "Xbox 360" version they're offering two variations on a console, each with different capabilities.
How is it different from Sony offering the PlayStation 2 as an optional peripheral, or PlayStation 3 for that matter? On the surface, not much. However, the major point of distinction is Microsoft already dug themselves into a pit by offering the hard drive standard on the Xbox, which creates a slew of new issues. And it's not simply a matter of original Xbox users expecting a hard drive.
Problem #1: Xbox 360 is only backwards compatible with the hard drive. Many key titles including Halo 2 took advantage of that storage capacity in the form of downloadable updates and maps. Microsoft has already confirmed that you need a hard drive to play original Xbox games, so the core system itself is not backwards compatible. So if you're broke and can't afford the $400 version, that ungainly black plastic behemoth will have to accompany the 360. Hey, at least one's concave and convex, so they fit together.
Looks like the hardcore gamer, aka "Striker" can't opt for the cheaper "Core System" if he's "the guy that stands in line for 24 hours to get his hands on the next hot release first," and who's also the "fast-twitch gamer who'll play for hours to master every level and every move before he mixes it up online with the best of the best." If you don't know who Striker is, J. Allard named three archetypal gamers at the Microsoft E3 press conference: the hardcore gamer (Striker), casual/non-gamer (Velocity Girl), technophile (BeatBuilder).
Problem #2: Xbox Live will be gimped without a hard drive. See, the difference between Sony and Microsoft is Sony wasn't boasting about the awesomeness of its online infrastructure, while Microsoft and J. Allard did. Now how will "Velocity Girl" (gotta give credit to those marketing guys for that name) make those wonderful T-shirts if her brilliant creations can't be saved onto a hard drive? Or soundtracks? Or would this elusive non-gamer be willing to shell out $400 just so she can make a couple bumper stickers? One may immediately counter and say, "maybe all of that functionality doesn't require a hard drive!"
But how about casual gaming? "[Velocity Gamer]'s going to rejoin us because we're delivering a fresh set of services designed to nurture community and to broaden game play. To expand the market, we're going to deliver more casual game experiences on-demand through the Xbox Live Arcade," Allard said. Well according to Microsoft, you need to download the games, even if you have the Xbox Live Arcade disc. So who is the $299 "Core System" for? Not for Velocity Girl.
The hard drive-less option definitely isn't for techno-geek BeatBuilder, either. "When he's not playing games, BeatBuilder is going to use this digital amplifier to open the door to incredible, new high definition experiences. He'll be able to sample and purchase content online, he'll be able to stream high-definition entertainment stored on his Media Center PC. He'll be able to bring his entire experience to life in his living room," Allard said. Purchase content over Xbox Live? Either he's throwing cash to simply get the rights to view them, or they'll be stored somewhere, say a hard drive. So count out BeatBuilder.
Problem #3: Franchise games will need to change. If developers such as Bungie have to cater to both a hard drive and a hard drive-less Xbox 360, the games will have to change--either that, or the "Core System" owners will get completely screwed over. Downloadable sports rosters, retro games, downloadable maps, updates? All out of reach without a hard drive. Hence to truly experience a game, you'd need the storage space. Either that, or developers will need to cater to the lowest common console denominator and make their games without a hard drive in mind.
"Striker, VelocityGirl, BeatBuilder: We're checking off the list but these are just some of the people that we thought about on our journey to build the ultimate entertainment product with true mass appeal," Allard beamed. It's too bad the "Core System" doesn't have what those hypothetical three want.
The Solution? It's quite simple, but it'll look bad for Microsoft: dump the two SKU model completely. Offer only one type of Xbox 360, one that includes a hard drive. Have it stripped down to the bare necessities, including only one wired controller, AC Adaptor and RCA cables. Bite the loss and sell it for $350. It'll still probably be cheaper than the PS3. And just drop the HD-DVD idea altogether. The downside to releasing the 360 before anybody else is you have to stick with the regular DVD format. Introducing a new format a couple years down the line would create a new, smaller audience of gamers that will eventually fizzle (aka Sega CD).
Maybe the lack of a hard drive won't impact software sales in the end--but it sure does take some of the thunder away from Microsoft's next-generation console.
