GDC Predictions Analyzed (page 3 of 3)

The Long Shots


PREDICTION: Microsoft reduces the price on the standard white Xbox 360s after unveiling the black model.

Likelihood: 30%
Submitted by: Bro Buzz

Why it won't happen: This theory has potential, but remains frustratingly speculative for the time being. Microsoft currently has the edge in the next-generation console battle thanks to its year-long head start over the PS3. We also know that Microsoft is no longer losing money on each Xbox 360 unit it sells; in fact, they are likely making a solid profit. And the upcoming switch to a 65-nanometer CPU manufacturing process in early 2007 should further help reduce waste and increase profitability.

On the flip side, Microsoft is already priced lower than the PS3, its chief competition. A price drop might help spur Xbox 360 sales, but would also throw a dent into Microsoft's Xbox 360 hardware profitability. And if Microsoft has demonstrated anything with the Xbox 360, it's a firm commitment to profit: see the Xbox Live subscription fee, high-priced memory cards, and the precedent-setting $59.99 retail price for Xbox 360 games.

It's possible that Microsoft will drop the Xbox 360's price at GDC, but we're betting it will happen later rather than sooner. Say late 2007, with the arrival of star game Halo 3.



PREDICTION: Sony will announce a price drop for the PlayStation 3.

Likelihood: 10%
Submitted by: Major Mike

Why it won't happen: Even if Sony were to drop the price of the PS3, GDC isn't the best time or place to make such an announcement. A PS3 price drop would be more likely in late 2007, as a strategy to boost sales for the holiday season, or in early 2008 as the console boasts more and more must-have games and becomes a more viable competitor. Sony is currently losing quite a bit of money for every PS3 sold, a loss they optimistically describe as an "investment." Sony will surely drop the console's price once they reach mass production of the console and achieve economy of scale. The PS3 hasn't even been launched in Europe yet, so this is unlikely to happen for some time.



PREDICTION: Nintendo announces Wii with DVD release date for the U.S.

Likelihood: 25%
Submitted by: Dr. Zombie

Why it won't happen: This is possible but highly unlikely. Nintendo hasn't lost any sales based on the Wii's missing DVD playback, so it's unclear exactly what benefits would come from an upgraded Wii featuring DVD movie playback. With budget standalone DVD players available for as low as $20, it's safe to say that Nintendo probably doesn't see DVD playback as a must-have feature. We'd agree.



PREDICTION: Blizzard announces Diablo 3 or StarCraft 2 for 2009.

Likelihood: 25%
Submitted by: Vicious Sid

Why it won't happen: Blizzard is famous (or perhaps notorious) for their slavish devotion to quality at the expense of everything else. That's one reason why no-brainer follow-ups to smash hits Diablo II (released in 1999) and Starcraft (released in 1996) have remained so elusive.

But with Blizzard, all bets are off. Diablo 3 is rumored to have been locked in various stages of development for years; work on Starcraft 2 is also suspected to be well underway. But whether Blizzard actually decides to release those games is another matter entirely. The company famously canceled its Warcraft Adventures PC role-playing game and indefinitely postponed console spin-off Stacraft: Ghost despite major investment. Blizzard's not afraid to disappoint fans if it means keeping the company's legendary reputation for quality intact. As such, it's impossible to make a prediction concerning a Diablo 3 or Starcraft 2, however obviously tempting they may be.

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